温家宝曾多次提到政治体制改革，在薄熙来事件爆发后，中国的体制改革更加引发舆论关注。日前法国媒体引述传闻说，温家宝的政改方案已获得通过。但是这项传闻，真的能像传出消息者所盼望的那样——〝保佑中国，保佑占世界人口20%的中国人!〞吗? ，请看专家的分析解读。
《法国国际广播电台》援引海外华文网站《纵览中国》15号的刊文说，〝北京文化人聚集地万圣书园的老板娘'醒客张'14日在新浪微博说：看到确切消息，温的改革建议、平反建议已被确认了！〞文章同时还引述了北京资深媒体人高瑜的话说：〝从体制内部听闻了相关消息。 〞
美国〝乔治梅森大学〞教授章天亮，期待温家宝能够改变中国的政治环境，把自由、公正、法制、人权的概念带给中国。
章天亮：〝对于温家宝改革的具体措施，我们还没有看到，所以也很难做一个具体的评论，当然我们对温家宝本人报以善意的期待，希望他能够通过他在那个特别环境的努力，能够把自由、公正、法制、人权，这些概念能够带到中国去，让中国形成一个良性的政治环境。〞
但是就目前中国的局势来看，章天亮认为，温家宝谈政改，〝现在有点太早了〞。
章天亮：〝因为我觉得中共内部现在整个的这一场斗争，还没有结束，特别像薄熙来、周永康，还有周永康后面的罗干、江泽民等等，在处理他们过程中，其实这种紧张程度不亚于一场战争，至少能够把这些作恶多端的人先控制起来。〞
时事评论员史达也认为，清除江系〝血债派〞是谈政改的第一个前提。
时事评论员史达：〝 我当然听到这个消息很高兴了，但是呢，如果政改要成功的话，我觉得有几个前提，第一个就是说，要去掉真正的那些反对派，包括江系血债派，怎么样把他们清除掉。还有一个就是政改改什么?是党内改，还是说把共产党也改了。〞
流亡西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛，也从温家宝有关〝不容文革在中国重演〞的讲话中，看到了希望的征兆。星期一他在美国夏威夷说，西藏2008年危机的原因，是同样一场文化大革命的卷土重来。但是，达赖喇嘛说，西藏地区仍然有〝枪杆子的崇拜者〞，而且〝从以往的经验来看，在少数民族地区党政的领导人，越左越强硬，对内屠杀的越严厉，反而会获得提升。〞所以在这样的一种政治环境之下，他觉得，现在还看不到温家宝所说的政改。
史达认为，〝共产党〞才是真正阻止中国社会进步的原因。
史达：〝因为不清除血债派的话，可能，这政改是不能进行到底的，那也不能保佑中国。政改的方向其实相当的重要，如果我们只是来个半调子，只是政改了一部分，那不是彻底的政改，你要政改，就要包括全部中国人，把中国良心犯，把中国受迫害的人群，让他们所有的人都做到心服口服，这样才能真正的保佑到中国。〞
章天亮提出，当这些〝血债派〞被清除之后，还需要一个重要的步骤，就是朝野之间商量怎么往前走。但是，章天亮认为，〝共产党这样的邪恶的体制，是不应该再存在下去了。〞
采访编辑/常春 后制/朱娣
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Will Wen’s Political Reform Bring Blessings to Twenty Percent of the World's Population?
Wen Jiabao has repeatedly discussed political reform. Since Bo Xilai’s case was exposed, China's institutional reform draws attention from around the world.
A French media recently reported that Premier Wen's reform package has allegedly been passed. But will the reform really benefit the Chinese, who account for 20% world population, as claimed? Please see our expert analysis.
Based on an article posted on the 15th from an overseas Chinese website, China In Perspective, Radio France Internationale reported that Thinker Zhang,
owner of WanSan Book Garden, a Beijing intellectuals gathering place, posted on Sina Weibo microblogging, “Saw a message saying that Wen’s proposals of reform and vindication have been confirmed! The article also indicated that Gao Yu, Beijing Evening News senior journalist said he allegedly “Learned this information from (a source) within the regime.”
George Mason University professor Zhang Tianliang hopes Wen Jiabao will change China's political environment and bring the concept of freedom, justice, rule of law, human rights to China.
Zhang Tianliang: "Since we have not seen Wen Jiabao’s reform measures, it is difficult to make a specific comment. Of course, we keep good faith in Wen Jiabao. We hope through his efforts in his particular environment,
concepts of freedom, justice, rule of law, human rights, and a healthy political environment can be brought to China."
Zhang Tianliang also thinks Wen Jiaobao’s political reform “seems a little too early” according to the current situation.
Zhang Tianliang: "I don’t think the infighting within the CCP has ended.
The tension during the process of dealing with Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkang,
and people behind them such as Luo Gan and Jiang Zemin is as much as a war, or at least a restriction to these evil doers."
Commentator Shi Da also believes that eliminating the Jiang “bloody debt” faction is a prerequisite to political reform.
Commentator Shi Da: "Of course I am very happy about this news. However, I feel there are several prerequisites to a successful political reform. The first is to completely remove the real opposition, including Jiang’s bloody debt group. Then what should the reform correct, the party or the CCP completely?"
The exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, also saw signs of hope in Wen Jiabao’s speech regarding "no Cultural Revolution in China again". On Monday in Hawaii he said the cause of the 2008 Tibet crisis is like a reoccurrence of the Cultural Revolution. However, the Dalai Lama said that in Tibet there are still “admirers of the gun,” and “from past experience,
those party and government leaders in minority areas who are more leftist, tougher, and conduct the more stringent internal massacre, will be promoted.”
Under such a political environment, he feels there won’t be the political reform Wen Jiabao mentioned.
Shi Da believes the Communist Party is the real cause of the halt to Chinese society’s progress.
Shi Da: "The political reform won’t possibly be carried out to the end if the bloody debt group is not completely eliminated, and thus there won’t be blessings brought to China. The direction of political reform is in fact quite important, if we only come to a partial political reform, it is not a thorough political reform. A political reform should convince every Chinese person,
including Chinese prisoners of conscience, and all the persecuted Chinese, that China is truly blessed."
Zhang Tianliang indicates that after the bloody debt group is cleared, there is also an important next step. That is, for the ruling and opposition parties to discuss how to move forward. However, Zhang Tianliang believes that an evil regime such as the Communist Party should no longer exist."
